Are We Witnessing the Return of Stagflation

Are We Witnessing the Return of Stagflation

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development ("OECD"), in its latest Global Outlook, is forecasting 2026 Annual (Year-over-Year) US Real GDP growth at 1.7 Percent. By way of context, this follows 2025 Annual US Real GDP growth of 2.1% (Second Estimate), 2024 Annual US Real GDP growth of 2.8 Percent, and 2023 Annual US Real Gross GDP growth of 2.9 Percent. This is meaningful because the US economy is experiencing declining economic growth, as expressed through declining Real GDP growth, together with sticky inflation which shows no signs of abating.  This phenomenon is referred to as Stagflation and can be detrimental to Private Company Valuations for those who are unprepared.

Best Practices for the Analysis and Intrinsic Valuation of Commercial Real Estate Investments

Best Practices for the Analysis and Intrinsic Valuation of Commercial Real Estate Investments

While the practice of financial valuation encompasses all quantitative approaches and methods for the analysis and valuation of asset-based investments, most literature and commentary on the subject focuses on corporate and business financial analysis and valuation as opposed to specific approaches and methods for commercial real estate analysis and implied property valuation. In this article, we want to focus on best practices to improve the validity and reliability of commercial real estate analysis and valuation utilizing Income Approaches.

Approaches and Methods for the Equity Valuation of Wineries

Approaches and Methods for the Equity Valuation of Wineries

The value of a winery is not predicated on a simple, static formula or method as many inexperienced or unqualified valuation analysts would have you believe.  On the contrary, the valuation of a winery requires a solid understanding of how it has created value historically, and how it plans to create value in the future, as well as an understanding of the essential conditions of the industry in which the winery competes.  The value of a winery also requires the inclusion of an appraisal of any vineyard land owned by a winery, separate and distinct from the value of the winery business, in order to arrive at a consolidated valuation for a winery.

The "Big Beautiful Bill's" Impact on Valuations

The "Big Beautiful Bill's" Impact on Valuations

From a financial valuation perspective, early analysis of the Trump Administration’s “Big Beautiful Bill” (the “Bill”) indicates that it will likely have varying effects on business valuations by industry, creating “winners” and “losers” based on available subsidies as well as specific/targeted tax policies.

How Tariffs Can Affect Business Valuations - Trade Wars from a Private Company Perspective

How Tariffs Can Affect Business Valuations  - Trade Wars from a Private Company Perspective

Make no mistake about it, market uncertainty associated with Trade Wars creates risk, and perceived risk reduces valuations.  In a nutshell, this is exactly what we see playing out in the recent stock market turmoil and it’s not isolated to just publicly traded stocks, it is also being felt by private companies from start-ups to merger and acquisition activity, wherever equity transactions are occurring.

Merger and Acquisition Outlook for 2025

Merger and Acquisition Outlook for 2025

Many analysts see a rebound in M&A transaction activity in the second half of this year as interest rates prospectively begin to ease.  Accordingly, the prospects for short-term improvements in macroeconomic conditions are causing many prospective sellers to wait for lower interest rates in the belief that valuations will increase. 

How Agile Financial Planning Can Achieve Long-Term Sustainable Growth

How Agile Financial Planning Can Achieve Long-Term Sustainable Growth

Over my many years as a corporate CFO and, more recently, as an outsourced CFO and Financial Planning and Analysis (FP&A) professional, I have been puzzled over why so many hardworking, smart, FP&A teams engage in static linear thinking as it pertains to their financial planning processes.  I have come to believe that it is because many FP&A teams have become conditioned to be comfortable with simple budget models that have static, consistent, linear rates of growth over time.  They are comfortable budgeting based on events from prior periods by increasing sales revenue, along with associated production costs, based on targeted/desired growth without any reliance on other relevant economic factors and conditions.

Assessing Business Performance in a Competitive Market Place

Assessing Business Performance in a Competitive Market Place

As competition in the Beverage Alcohol Industry continues to put downward pressure on profit margins among constituent firms, especially in the Wine segment, it is now more important than ever for business managers to assess the effectiveness of their business’ strategies and tactics in order to ensure the long-term sustainability of their core business operations.    

As Deal Activity Slumps Earnouts and Equity Rollovers Are on the Rise

As Deal Activity Slumps Earnouts and Equity Rollovers Are on the Rise

Corporate Merger and Acquisition activity has slumped to the lowest levels in a decade as buyers and sellers find it difficult to agree on acquisition pricing.  That said, motivated buyers and sellers are finding workarounds to fill the gap between seller valuations and what buyers are willing to pay.  Specifically, buyers and sellers are finding ways to reduce transactional risk, and get deals done, by including Earnouts and Equity Rollovers into transaction terms and conditions. 

A Contribution Margin Approach: The Best Way to Analyze Your Products’ Contribution to Overall Profitability

A Contribution Margin Approach: The Best Way to Analyze Your Products’ Contribution to Overall Profitability

The traditional Income Statement Approach classifies costs according to the reason costs were incurred and yields a Profit Calculation for your business as a whole. While this is a good measure for understanding the profitability of your entire business, it is not an effective method for measuring the contribution that individual products make to your company’s bottom line. For this, you need to utilize a Contribution Margin Approach.